The Agri-Cult

From the...Are you kidding me? dept.

I am not a farmer (IANAF) but I come from people who worked the land and put in years of hard labor in the mines of Iowa. Enough intergenerational knowledge and insight was passed along for me to know that the “ideas” put forward from “leaders” this past week border on the psychedelically weird.

My folks were pretty adamant that I learn to use my brain and not just my back in navigating my time here on planet Earth and thankfully, I was trained as a journalist. Certainly, the readers and listeners here at Substack and My Integrated Life know that if you want to know the right answers, you have to ask the right questions.

In today’s world of LLM’s (Large Language Models) and next-level information sources like OpenAi’s ChatGPT, asking the right questions can make the all the difference finding needles of truth in the haytstack of info-glut.

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After unslacking my jaw at hearing the proposition put forth a few days ago by US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, I decided to head over to my Openai account and engage ChatGPT in a bit of analysis of her proposition as reported by Politico.com.

What follows is my ‘conversation’ with ChatGPT as I sought to judge the efficacy of her bold statement. I’ve edited (but not significantly altered) the back and forth between myself and the GPT machine in order to make things as clear as possible.

The basic question posed by me:

Was Secretary Rollins’ suggestion to replace migrant workers with Medicaid recipients a viable possibility when taking into account the realities of :

1. The work needing to be done ?

2. The raw numbers necessary to do the work being done ?

3. The physical abilities needed to do the work being done ?

4. The actual preparedness of the population she suggests as available to do the work ?

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   Here we go:

I said: (I always open with a courteous, respectful tone)

Good afternoon, Might we do some numerical analysis?

ChatGPT said:

Good afternoon! Absolutely—we can definitely do some numerical analysis.

I next asked:

To begin let's compare two sets of data.

1. First, the number of agricultural workers in America (excluding owners)

ChatGPT Responded:

Here’s what I’ve found so far on the number of agricultural workers in the U.S. excluding owners (i.e., hired laborers):

• According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s NAWS and USDA sources, there are approximately 2.9 million agricultural workers in the U.S. (including those hired by labor contractors and growers) The USDA’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) reports approximately 1.6 million full-time-equivalent hired workers in 2022 (not including farm owners), but when accounting for seasonality, the Census of Agriculture estimates about 2.4 million unique farmworkers Economic Policy Institute
  .

• The USDA Economic Research Service notes that around 1.17 million wage-and-salary jobs existed in agriculture in 2023, and that paid labor accounts for about 41 % of all farm workers Economic Research Service
  +1AgAmerica
  +1.

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2. 👉 Next step:

I went on to ask:

Next, please tell me the number of U.S. Medicaid recipients between the ages of 18-60?

ChatGPT said:

📊 National Overview — Recent Data

• According to a May 2025 Pew Research Center summary of KFF data, there were about 31.2 million Medicaid enrollees aged 19 to 64 in 2023

🧮

(I was then curious about the ability of Medicaid enrollees to perform the kind of labor that Secretary Rollins was suggesting. It got real pretty quickly from here…..)

I Asked:

Considering the general physical health of Medicaid recipients after age 45-50, Can you estimate the number of Medicaid recipients physically able to do typical agricultural labor of the kind performed by migrant workers in the US?

ChatGPT said:

That’s a sharp and relevant question—one that intersects health data, labor capacity, and socioeconomic context. Let’s break this down in steps to reach a reasonable numerical estimate of how many Medicaid recipients aged 45–60 could plausibly perform typical U.S. agricultural labor (i.e., strenuous, outdoor manual work done by migrant workers).

🔧 Step 1: Estimate Size of the 45–60 Medicaid Cohort

We already estimated that there are about 28.5 million Medicaid recipients aged 18–60.

📐

⚕️ Step 2: Estimate Physical Fitness for Agricultural Labor

Agricultural labor typically includes:

• Stooping, lifting 20–50 lbs repeatedly, standing long hours in heat/cold, repetitive motion.

✅ Final Estimate

Approximately 1.5 million Medicaid recipients aged 45–60 are likely physically able to perform demanding agricultural labor similar to what U.S. migrant workers do.

📝 Notes on Assumptions

• This assumes “able” means without physical limitations that prevent sustained manual labor.

• Does not account for willingness, skills, geographic distribution, or legal/employment constraints.

• Actual employability in agriculture would likely be much lower, but you asked specifically about physical capability.

I continued with a request:

Finally list a side-by-side comparison of the number of

• Migrant agricultural workers in the U.S.: ~2.4 to 2.9 million (depending on the definition and data source)

• Physically capable Medicaid recipients aged 45–60: ~1.5 million

Chat GPT asked If I would like a table comparing:

• These two populations?

• Or perhaps something like total agricultural labor needs vs. domestic capacity?

• Or include other groups (e.g., unemployed adults, disability claimants, etc.)?

Let me know, and I’ll generate a clean, complete comparison for you.

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I wasn’t quite ready to go there but I asked the following….I said:

Let’s compare of the number of migrant workers currently employed for the kind of agricultural labor listed above to the total number of now-available (and physically able-bodied) medicaid recipients to do the same labor.

ChatGPT said:

Great—we now have all the pieces to do a clear, side-by-side comparison of:

• The number of migrant workers currently performing physically demanding agricultural labor in the U.S.

• The number of Medicaid recipients (ages 45–60) who are physically able-bodied enough to plausibly perform that same labor.

• Migrant agricultural workers

~2.4 to 2.9 million <==============

Includes seasonal and undocumented labor (NAWS, USDA, DOL)

• Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60)

~1.5 million <=============

From 7.7M total in this age group × ~20% estimated physically able

📊 Side-by-Side Comparison

Migrant Agricultural Workers 2.4 – 2.9 million

Able-Bodied Medicaid Recipients (Age 45–60) ~1.5 million

Typical work Required:

Migrant Agricultural Workers Stooping, lifting, repetitive field labor, outdoors

Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60) Same assumed

Legal employment status:

Migrant Agricultural Workers Mostly undocumented or H-2A visa holders

Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60) U.S. citizens or legal residents on Medicaid

Health & physical readiness:

Migrant Agricultural Workers Presumed able due to current participation

Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60) ~20% estimated able-bodied

Economic incentives:

Migrant Agricultural Workers Low pay, seasonal, often no benefits

Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60) Unclear – Medicaid recipients may lack incentives, skills, or access

Geographic proximity to farms:

Migrant Agricultural Workers Often live on-site or migrate

Able-bodied Medicaid recipients (age 45–60) Likely not located near rural/agricultural zones

⚖️ Interpretation

• There are nearly twice as many migrant workers actively doing the labor as there are able-bodied Medicaid recipients in the 45–60 age range who could plausibly substitute.

• Even if all 1.5 million were willing, many barriers exist:

  • Health limitations

  • Geographic mismatch

  • Lack of training or desire

  • Policy/workforce integration hurdles

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🧠 Conclusion

In raw numbers, there are enough Medicaid recipients aged 45–60 to replace over half of current migrant agricultural labor—but this is only theoretical. In practice, labor readiness, incentives, location, and health limitations would make this substitution extremely difficult without major structural reforms.

I Asked:

Does replacing migrant agricultural workers with US Medicaid recipients represent a well-reasoned business strategy?

ChatGPT said:

Replacing migrant agricultural workers with U.S. Medicaid recipients—especially those aged 45–60—is not a well-reasoned business strategy from economic, logistical, or social perspectives. Here's a breakdown of why:

⚖️ 1. Labor Availability and Willingness

• Migrant workers are already doing the job, often with high endurance, experience, and willingness to work under very difficult conditions for low pay.

• Medicaid recipients, while possibly physically able in theory, are:

  • Often not geographically located near farms.

  • Typically not trained or acclimated to strenuous outdoor labor.

  • Not incentivized: there's little economic or personal motivation to switch from Medicaid benefits to low-paying, difficult work.

Bottom line: You can’t just replace labor force participation by raw numbers; participation is driven by willingness and capacity.

🏗️ 2. Logistical & Economic Costs

To implement such a shift, you'd need:

• Massive relocation programs

• Training programs for unfamiliar, physically demanding work

• Healthcare and transportation infrastructure

• Likely higher wages and accommodations, since domestic workers typically require more to take the same jobs.

All of this makes the cost of labor much higher than hiring migrant workers—even undocumented ones.

📉 3. Business Risk

• Migrant workers form the backbone of the agricultural labor market due to their mobility, flexibility, and cost-efficiency.

• Replacing them introduces legal, ethical, and practical risk:

  • Unreliable labor force

  • Workforce turnover

  • Potential public backlash or policy issues (coercion, work requirements)

🧾 4. Real-World Precedent

• When states like Georgia and Alabama tried to crack down on undocumented workers, farms lost crops and revenue because unemployed citizens wouldn't (or couldn't) take the jobs.

• Many farm operators could not replace migrant labor even during high unemployment.

✅ Conclusion: No, It's Not a Viable Strategy

Replacing migrant agricultural workers with Medicaid recipients may seem attractive as a way to employ Americans, but:

It ignores the realities of labor economics, human motivation, logistics, and cost.

Instead, more promising approaches include:

• Improving working conditions for migrant labor

• Investing in agricultural automation

• Offering legal, streamlined guest worker programs

• Addressing rural poverty with targeted employment and training programs (not forced labor substitution)

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As I wrote above, I am not a farmer, nor am I a statistician but I do know how to ask questions and on hearing Secretary Rollins’ scheme to offload migrant workers and bring in an alleged legion of Medicare recipients….. I wasn’t sure whether to laugh or cry.

Somebody out there please help me make sense of this…..